By Dr. Nyi Latt
Recent geopolitical developments point toward a significant recalibration in United States foreign policy. Washington appears to be attempting to mainstream or legitimize organizations previously designated as terrorists or extremists. This trend is clearly visible in two distinct regions: the post-Assad transition in Syria and the political vacuum in Bangladesh.
1. The Syrian Shift: Normalizing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Following the collapse of the Assad regime and the capture of Damascus by opposition forces, the U.S. has signaled a willingness to fundamentally alter its relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The U.S. State Department announced it would review HTS’s designation as a terrorist organization and is considering suspending the "Caesar Act" sanctions imposed on Syria.
This move, described by the White House as an effort to facilitate a "pathway to stability and peace," involves high-level diplomatic engagements, including notable meetings between U.S. leadership and Syrian figures. Critics, however, view this as the restoration of a militant network for geopolitical interests—specifically to counter rival powers—effectively integrating a formerly blacklisted organization into the state apparatus.
2. The South Asian Bet: Engaging Islamists in Bangladesh
A similar strategy is unfolding in South Asia. Following the 2024 uprising in Bangladesh, Washington has increased engagement with hardline Islamist parties, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB). These engagements include diplomatic meetings with JeI leaders and the issuance of a U.S. visa to JeI Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, who has a history of inflammatory rhetoric.
Analysts argue that this "mainstreaming" amounts to legitimizing forces with histories of violence and sectarian extremism. They suggest these groups are being viewed as necessary stakeholders to counter Chinese influence in the Bay of Bengal.
Impact on Myanmar and Rakhine State
The destabilizing effects of this policy shift pose a risk of further complicating the volatile situation in Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine State. The empowerment of Islamist groups in neighboring Bangladesh, backed by U.S. diplomatic acceptance, could create direct security threats for Myanmar.
Revival of Insurgency Pathways
A primary concern is that a Dhaka government influenced by Jamaat-e-Islami or IAB could reactivate "insurgency pathways" related to the Bengali issue. Rakhine State, which shares a border with Bangladesh, has long been a conflict flashpoint. The rise of Islamist politicians to power in Bangladesh creates an environment conducive to the spread of cross-border extremism and the strengthening of radical networks operating along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.
Geopolitical Encirclement and Instability
It is argued that the U.S. strategy is creating a "broader geopolitical struggle" in the region. While Washington engages these groups to maintain influence, other nations, including Turkey, are also building relations with these Islamist movements.
For Myanmar, this situation could turn the border regions into a playground for rival foreign interests. The potential for the Pakistan Intelligence Agency (ISI) to regain a strategic foothold in Bangladesh complicates counter-terrorism cooperation and acts as a catalyst for instability spilling over into Myanmar.
Why the Situation is Growing More Complex
The complexity arises because the U.S. theory of "moderation through engagement"—the belief that pulling Islamists into the political process reduces their extremism—is prone to failure.
- Lessons from Global History: Current U.S. strategy echoes past failures in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. In those instances, engagement with Islamist groups did not result in democracy but rather led to political fragmentation or the strengthening of radical elements.
- Rising Regional Tensions: By encouraging groups opposed to democratic pluralism, the U.S. may inadvertently fuel "extremist networks" in India (West Bengal and Assam). This could increase pressure on minority communities and create conflicts between Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar.
Conclusion
In conclusion, by removing terrorist designations in Syria and legitimizing Islamist parties in Bangladesh, the U.S. appears to be unintentionally (or strategically) encouraging networks that destabilize entire regions. For Myanmar, and Rakhine State specifically, this situation signals a risk that new geopolitical rivalries in the Bay of Bengal could reopen the door for a resurgence of cross-border insurgencies.
References:
- Why Washington’s Bangladesh gamble could ignite a new Islamist surge in South Asia (First Post)
- US mulls removing Syria's Hayat Tahrir al Sham from its terror list (TRT World)
- Iraqi spy chief warns of reemerging threat from ISIS as its ranks swell (The Washington Post)
